Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +29 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -15.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -11.9 (+17.1) | 143.6 (-8.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -12.0 (+17.0) | 145.0 (-10.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -12.0 (+17.0) | 145.3 (-10.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -12.3 (+16.7) | 145.5 (-10.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-6 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 4-8 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#136) | -10.5 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#124) | -2.35 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#120) | -2.57 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#99) | 0.415 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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