Betting Lines
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LAS +105 JOES -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +1 | 97 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -1.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-44.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.7 (+1.7) | 139.3 (-42.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -1.0 (+2.0) | 138.9 (-41.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.9 (+1.9) | 140.1 (-43.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.4 (+1.4) | 140.2 (-43.2) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#239) | 0.7 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#259) | -0.34 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#268) | -0.17 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#285) | 0.474 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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