Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -5.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -2.3 (-10.7) | 139.0 (+10.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.6 (-9.4) | 141.4 (+7.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -2.6 (-10.4) | 141.8 (+7.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -2.4 (-10.6) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | AUB 79 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2026 | MSST 91 – 85 AUB |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AUB 88 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 16, 2024 | AUB 73 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AUB 78 – 63 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#47) | 18.2 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#65) | 3.40 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#68) | 4.31 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#80) | 0.650 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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