Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -200 SIUE +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -1.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -1.6 (+13.4) | 135.1 (+3.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.1 (+12.9) | 136.9 (+2.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.2 (+12.8) | 136.9 (+2.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -2.2 (+12.8) | 137.1 (+1.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TNST 80 – 53 SIUE |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SIUE 74 – 66 TNST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SIUE 71 – 69 TNST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SIUE 84 – 72 TNST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SIUE 87 – 80 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#270) | -7.4 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#301) | -1.78 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#296) | -2.27 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#323) | 0.429 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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