Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | LT -8.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -9.2 (+3.8) | 138.8 (-17.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -8.8 (+4.2) | 138.5 (-17.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -9.0 (+4.0) | 139.9 (-18.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -9.2 (+3.8) | 140.1 (-19.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Game Analysis
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