Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -4.6 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.1 (+5.1) | 141.5 (-15.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.4 (+4.4) | 142.5 (-16.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -1.5 (+3.5) | 142.2 (-16.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -2.2 (+4.2) | 143.1 (-17.1) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CREI 91 – 84 CONN |
| Feb 1, 2026 | CONN 85 – 58 CREI |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CREI 71 – 62 CONN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 12-7 | 13-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#72) | 15.3 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#34) | 2.83 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#36) | 3.46 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#52) | 0.598 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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