Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MD -4.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -5.3 (+5.7) | 135.5 (+21.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -6.0 (+5.0) | 137.1 (+19.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -6.1 (+4.9) | 137.3 (+19.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -5.8 (+5.2) | 137.5 (+19.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MD 67 – 62 MINN |
| Jan 13, 2025 | MD 77 – 71 MINN |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MINN 65 – 62 MD |
| Mar 10, 2023 | MD 70 – 54 MINN |
| Feb 23, 2023 | MD 88 – 70 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#80) | 5.2 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#88) | 1.19 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#81) | 1.42 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#114) | 0.534 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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