Arkansas State
Red Wolves
81
–
77
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires Sun Belt
UL Monroe
Warhawks
Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -5.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.5 (-0.5) | 140.5 (+17.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -4.7 (-0.7) | 140.0 (+18.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -4.1 (-0.1) | 140.5 (+17.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -4.3 (-0.3) | 140.3 (+17.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#195) | -6.9 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#143) | -0.75 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#139) | -0.93 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#143) | 0.472 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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