Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +11 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -3.9 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -2.3 (-8.7) | 141.9 (+9.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.4 (-7.6) | 144.4 (+6.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.4 (-7.6) | 146.1 (+4.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.5 (-7.5) | 143.5 (+7.5) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#140) | 8.1 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#186) | 1.77 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#166) | 2.26 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#254) | 0.571 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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