Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | UNI -420 ILST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -6.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -6.1 (+6.9) | 150.7 (-7.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -6.2 (+6.8) | 155.6 (-12.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -6.3 (+6.7) | 154.2 (-11.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -6.4 (+6.6) | 152.6 (-9.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNI 74 – 52 ILST |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ILST 71 – 69 UNI |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILST 59 – 54 UNI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNI 68 – 65 ILST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UNI 85 – 84 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#97) | -0.4 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#113) | -0.97 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#106) | -0.88 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#61) | 0.448 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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