Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -120 INST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +5 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -2.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-43.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -0.9 (+4.1) | 148.5 (-37.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -1.7 (+3.3) | 149.3 (-38.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -2.0 (+3.0) | 149.7 (-38.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -2.4 (+2.6) | 149.4 (-38.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#175) | -2.9 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#256) | -1.12 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#236) | -1.23 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#270) | 0.446 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 17.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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