Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +17 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -4.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -5.9 (+11.1) | 144.0 (-25.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.3 (+12.7) | 147.2 (-28.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.1 (+12.9) | 147.9 (-28.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -3.7 (+13.3) | 146.1 (-27.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
Game Analysis
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