Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 115.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +1 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -6.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 108.6 (+20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -7.8 (-6.8) | 121.3 (+7.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -6.7 (-5.7) | 121.0 (+8.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -6.5 (-5.5) | 123.8 (+5.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -5.5 (-4.5) | 124.9 (+4.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 52 FRES |
| Feb 19, 2025 | SDSU 83 – 60 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2024 | SDSU 84 – 62 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SDSU 73 – 41 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 47 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 8-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#25) | 8.2 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#28) | 1.22 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#24) | 1.66 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#21) | 0.538 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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