Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +40 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -17.2 (+22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -17.0 (+23.0) | 160.8 (-8.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -16.9 (+23.1) | 164.4 (-12.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -17.5 (+22.5) | 162.3 (-10.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -18.3 (+21.7) | 162.7 (-10.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#71) | -6.5 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#73) | -1.04 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#87) | -1.39 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#45) | 0.443 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.