Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -220 HOW +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -4.7 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -7.7 (+14.3) | 143.9 (+0.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -5.9 (+16.1) | 144.3 (-0.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -5.4 (+16.6) | 145.4 (-1.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -6.1 (+15.9) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOW 84 – 76 NORF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOW 88 – 60 NORF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NORF 81 – 69 HOW |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NORF 92 – 75 HOW |
| Mar 15, 2024 | HOW 80 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 16-13 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-0 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#184) | -2.8 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#153) | -0.97 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#168) | -1.06 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#140) | 0.462 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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