Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +22 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -7.8 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -5.8 (+16.2) | 132.6 (+7.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -7.2 (+14.8) | 132.3 (+7.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -6.6 (+15.4) | 134.1 (+5.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -7.0 (+15.0) | 133.4 (+6.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-8 | 4-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 58.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#204) | -9.7 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#232) | -2.02 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#217) | -2.07 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#249) | 0.413 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 27.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 4.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 14.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.