Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -800 PSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +5 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -12.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -11.9 (-6.9) | 137.7 (-22.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.4 (-6.4) | 138.0 (-23.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -10.8 (-5.8) | 137.5 (-22.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -11.3 (-6.3) | 136.5 (-21.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | ILL 73 – 65 PSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ILL 91 – 52 PSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | PSU 90 – 89 ILL |
| Mar 9, 2023 | PSU 79 – 76 ILL |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PSU 93 – 81 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#16) | 6.0 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#23) | 1.00 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#21) | 1.27 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#30) | 0.515 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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