Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +9 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -12.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -11.8 (+2.8) | 130.2 (+6.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -11.6 (+2.6) | 130.7 (+6.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -11.2 (+2.2) | 131.2 (+5.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -10.5 (+1.5) | 131.4 (+5.6) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USF 96 – 89 MEM |
| Feb 20, 2026 | USF 87 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MEM 84 – 68 USF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MEM 80 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USF 74 – 73 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-10 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#236) | 11.9 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#247) | 1.57 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#240) | 2.35 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#264) | 0.584 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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