Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -12.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -14.5 (+1.5) | 146.5 (-2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -12.3 (+3.7) | 145.5 (-1.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -12.0 (+4.0) | 145.5 (-1.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -11.9 (+4.1) | 145.6 (-1.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UTU 80 – 74 ACU |
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTU 85 – 81 ACU |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UTU 76 – 70 ACU |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UTU 79 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ACU 80 – 72 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#125) | -7.0 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#146) | -0.75 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#136) | -1.19 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#155) | 0.466 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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