Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -6.1 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -3.8 (+13.8) | 146.0 (-2.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -4.9 (+14.9) | 148.0 (-4.0) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.2 (+15.2) | 148.9 (-4.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.9 (+14.9) | 147.6 (-3.6) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-15 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#320) | -1.3 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#344) | -0.52 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#340) | -0.71 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#331) | 0.490 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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