Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -14.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.7 (-4.7) | 138.8 (+5.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -10.7 (-4.7) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -10.6 (-4.6) | 140.7 (+3.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -10.9 (-4.9) | 140.6 (+3.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#141) | -10.5 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#117) | -1.72 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#115) | -1.77 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#79) | 0.420 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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