They headed down to old El Paso; thats's where they ran into a great big hassle. "Take the Money and Run" - The Steve Miller Band
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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71–17 on winners spread MAE 7.0 88 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Missouri State +10.2 145.3 82% 58–67 ✓
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +2.9 139.7 61% 65–72 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) +7.1 152.6 74% 63–76 ✓
Central Michigan @ Akron +14.3 133.8 90% 56–57 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +5.6 145.1 70% 53–81 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +17.6 151.3 95% 74–88 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -9.4 133.3 20% 57–58 ✗
Campbell @ Gardner-Webb +2.7 123.5 60% 53–54 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ BYU +11.0 144.7 84% 60–85 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +3.4 126.4 62% 52–65 ✓
Morehead State @ Belmont +5.1 140.6 68% 53–51 ✗
Utah State @ San José State -13.7 139.6 11% 75–52 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +1.8 136.6 56% 55–73 ✓
Villanova @ Butler -11.9 123.9 14% 78–59 ✓
Arkansas @ Tennessee +7.3 140.8 75% 74–78 ✓
Alabama @ LSU +6.0 148.8 71% 77–80 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +8.4 145.6 78% 70–79 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +12.6 148.5 87% 66–71 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville -2.4 121.1 41% 71–61 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +1.7 132.4 56% 78–82 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State +3.1 135.7 61% 79–72 ✗
Davidson @ Dayton +2.9 130.1 60% 76–82 ✓
South Carolina @ Auburn +16.2 144.0 93% 71–82 ✓
Miami @ Syracuse +1.3 159.7 55% 75–72 ✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +6.5 125.1 72% 41–57 ✓
Marist @ Niagara +0.6 130.7 52% 52–83 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Iona +14.6 152.2 91% 61–79 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida -6.0 142.6 29% 71–63 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +9.8 145.2 81% 67–69 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Old Dominion -2.8 131.4 40% 64–68 ✗
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic +11.4 139.9 85% 76–84 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson -2.1 133.4 43% 59–63 ✗
NC State @ Florida State +5.9 147.6 70% 76–89 ✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard +4.0 129.7 64% 76–54 ✗
TCU @ West Virginia +0.2 132.9 51% 64–70 ✓
George Washington @ Fordham +5.7 133.7 70% 66–70 ✓
La Salle @ Duquesne -0.1 137.7 50% 85–76 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +0.0 138.6 50% 67–76 ✓
VMI @ Wofford +4.2 148.2 65% 66–68 ✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton -0.9 135.1 47% 65–60 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame +12.5 129.0 87% 54–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Saint Joseph's +0.2 131.1 51% 60–70 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State -4.0 130.4 36% 51–52 ✗
Little Rock @ Troy +10.1 139.1 82% 62–69 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +10.4 138.4 83% 62–70 ✓
Stanford @ Arizona State +4.2 128.7 65% 56–65 ✓
Rice @ UTSA -4.9 149.8 33% 71–82 ✗
North Texas @ UTEP -6.6 114.2 27% 68–70 ✗
Marshall @ Western Kentucky +11.2 157.4 85% 69–78 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UAB +7.7 148.4 76% 74–87 ✓
Charlotte @ Southern Miss -8.6 141.0 22% 70–67 ✓
California Baptist @ Lamar -8.9 134.3 21% 78–66 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Northern Iowa -6.7 142.6 27% 66–43 ✓
Georgia @ Missouri +4.6 144.1 66% 69–79 ✓
Texas @ Kansas +4.5 139.0 66% 63–70 ✓
Oregon @ Washington State +4.1 136.9 64% 74–94 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.1 120.4 29% 66–61 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M +5.1 127.1 68% 73–84 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State -1.5 165.4 44% 85–80 ✓
Chicago State @ Seattle U +18.8 139.0 96% 66–74 ✓
Cornell @ Columbia -10.8 158.2 16% 78–64 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas State +1.1 132.6 54% 78–71 ✗
VCU @ Saint Louis +3.4 132.3 62% 65–69 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Mason +9.2 154.1 80% 83–80 ✗
Siena @ Canisius +2.2 136.2 58% 64–67 ✓
Monmouth @ Rider -3.5 134.0 37% 65–74 ✗
Fresno State @ Wyoming +2.9 124.6 60% 64–68 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls +7.3 151.9 75% 85–92 ✓
California @ Arizona +21.2 140.7 97% 61–89 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +12.0 144.6 86% 68–75 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary -7.0 131.3 26% 68–63 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M -6.4 130.4 28% 50–49 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +3.8 149.0 63% 69–78 ✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington +6.8 151.5 73% 75–83 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word -6.8 139.8 27% 77–68 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +2.8 146.0 60% 75–78 ✓
Iowa State @ Baylor +11.9 131.7 86% 68–75 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +11.5 155.2 85% 94–81 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Bryant +5.1 142.3 68% 69–70 ✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia State +0.9 136.9 53% 62–65 ✓
Drake @ Missouri State +1.8 145.2 56% 79–78 ✗
Bellarmine @ Liberty +8.0 134.7 77% 53–50 ✗
Mercer @ Furman +9.2 144.3 80% 66–80 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +12.3 142.4 87% 77–100 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana State +6.8 153.3 73% 85–87 ✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania -2.6 155.5 41% 93–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss +0.1 134.2 50% 63–61 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +14.2 136.6 90% 69–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.