Really don't mind if you sit this one out. "Thick as a Brick" - Jethro Tull
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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59–11 on winners spread MAE 9.0 70 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Houston +18.5 130.8 95% 46–84 ✓
Penn State @ Illinois +11.7 132.2 86% 55–60 ✓
Michigan State @ Ohio State +4.0 142.9 64% 69–80 ✓
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne +6.9 149.0 74% 72–78 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +3.4 135.5 62% 59–77 ✓
Oakland @ Wright State +1.1 147.8 54% 63–75 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +16.8 153.4 94% 68–96 ✓
American University @ Navy +14.2 120.2 90% 64–71 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +5.7 133.3 70% 64–76 ✓
Army @ Lehigh +1.1 143.6 54% 77–91 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State +2.7 154.8 60% 53–58 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville +13.7 135.4 89% 69–79 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State +7.0 142.1 74% 67–78 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine +1.1 148.2 54% 68–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Liberty +12.8 149.4 88% 47–52 ✓
Cincinnati @ SMU +6.6 139.1 73% 71–76 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida International -4.8 141.2 33% 71–51 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth +9.3 144.4 80% 72–75 ✓
Iona @ Manhattan -10.7 150.0 17% 72–74 ✗
Siena @ Niagara +3.6 128.9 63% 52–74 ✓
Marist @ Canisius -3.3 137.7 38% 67–78 ✗
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +0.1 155.5 50% 55–79 ✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central +4.5 141.8 66% 62–67 ✓
Howard @ Norfolk State +4.9 145.8 67% 61–83 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State +2.6 150.3 59% 63–59 ✗
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +13.8 129.9 90% 59–63 ✓
Tarleton State @ Sam Houston +3.8 122.7 64% 50–69 ✓
Rider @ Fairfield +5.4 131.8 69% 59–65 ✓
TCU @ Kansas +10.4 144.6 83% 68–72 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State +12.4 149.7 87% 67–83 ✓
UCF @ Tulane +2.2 144.9 58% 67–82 ✓
California @ Arizona State +4.4 123.9 65% 44–71 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama A&M +0.5 129.5 52% 63–71 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -16.2 120.3 7% 59–48 ✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +12.3 149.4 87% 64–80 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +6.2 130.7 71% 70–64 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +11.1 127.9 84% 79–87 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +16.5 149.4 93% 69–72 ✓
Stanford @ Arizona +20.2 146.1 97% 69–81 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan -1.2 154.4 46% 82–71 ✓
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +4.5 139.5 66% 66–86 ✓
Southern @ Alabama State -5.9 147.0 29% 67–77 ✗
Memphis @ South Florida -12.7 128.3 12% 73–64 ✓
Rice @ UTEP +5.4 144.5 69% 67–70 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +14.5 132.0 91% 69–75 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +1.5 150.4 55% 75–66 ✗
Southern Utah @ Idaho State -9.7 139.8 19% 79–71 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho -1.2 155.9 46% 79–68 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +12.1 146.6 87% 62–69 ✓
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon +4.7 128.9 67% 57–68 ✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso +8.1 130.1 77% 59–81 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +7.3 140.3 75% 56–73 ✓
Oregon @ Washington -3.9 145.6 36% 67–78 ✗
UC Davis @ Long Beach State +5.7 147.2 70% 65–68 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara +4.6 134.4 66% 60–67 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield +2.0 135.1 57% 72–70 ✗
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly -10.6 118.1 17% 54–65 ✗
Fresno State @ San Diego State +5.4 109.7 69% 64–65 ✓
Oregon State @ Washington State +16.4 141.5 93% 67–71 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +3.5 132.5 62% 75–72 ✗
Pepperdine @ San Diego +3.7 138.0 63% 67–74 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Longwood +8.3 139.8 78% 65–79 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +6.6 157.5 73% 65–78 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +7.6 148.1 75% 62–72 ✓
Bradley @ Loyola Chicago +6.0 132.7 71% 50–66 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +4.5 153.7 66% 84–76 ✗
High Point @ Winthrop +4.7 148.1 67% 51–68 ✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan -3.1 146.8 39% 64–63 ✓
Buffalo @ Kent State +1.0 143.1 53% 65–70 ✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo +18.5 167.4 95% 56–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.