We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–12 on winners spread MAE 8.6 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Texas A&M @ Alabama +8.6 152.9 78% 87–71 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Bryant +14.9 147.6 91% 59–73 ✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner +15.6 141.3 92% 53–82 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University +9.4 158.2 80% 75–82 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Mount St. Mary's +5.9 126.4 70% 48–78 ✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +15.7 148.8 92% 68–73 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Marshall -4.5 157.0 34% 86–72 ✓
Old Dominion @ Louisiana Tech +8.3 136.5 77% 54–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte -3.6 142.0 37% 56–60 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Clemson +10.3 138.9 83% 65–68 ✓
Notre Dame @ Florida State -1.8 137.9 44% 70–74 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State +4.0 128.5 64% 53–36 ✗
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island -3.3 134.6 38% 80–74 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -1.7 141.8 44% 48–49 ✗
Fordham @ Massachusetts +1.2 147.9 54% 73–81 ✓
Duquesne @ George Washington +6.2 136.2 71% 93–98 ✓
George Mason @ Davidson +7.2 140.2 74% 62–73 ✓
Rutgers @ Indiana +6.5 129.3 72% 66–63 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +1.0 139.2 54% 62–77 ✓
UAB @ Southern Miss -20.5 144.1 3% 81–68 ✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans +11.9 147.8 86% 74–75 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar -3.1 147.8 39% 67–63 ✓
UConn @ Creighton -4.4 137.0 34% 62–64 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -0.4 145.4 48% 86–75 ✓
Auburn @ Mississippi State -4.4 142.6 34% 81–68 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +0.8 137.7 53% 76–77 ✓
Presbyterian @ Campbell +3.6 123.3 63% 72–75 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulsa -3.3 135.1 38% 72–62 ✓
Marquette @ DePaul -3.0 148.5 39% 80–91 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ New Mexico State +5.8 137.7 70% 73–71 ✗
NC State @ Wake Forest +11.6 154.2 85% 76–101 ✓
Miami @ Boston College -3.5 141.7 37% 81–70 ✓
Minnesota @ Maryland +4.7 137.2 67% 73–84 ✓
Chicago State @ California Baptist +13.7 139.6 89% 53–62 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Austin Peay -1.3 139.5 45% 78–51 ✓
Wyoming @ UNLV -0.4 140.5 49% 57–64 ✗
UT Arlington @ Louisiana +2.4 138.5 59% 64–67 ✓
Little Rock @ South Alabama +14.4 139.1 90% 75–71 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Hartford +1.1 140.0 54% 83–73 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +5.9 143.3 70% 77–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.