And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–13 on winners spread MAE 9.8 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ole Miss @ Kentucky +17.2 141.9 94% 72–83 ✓
Nebraska @ Ohio State +16.3 155.7 93% 78–70 ✗
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +10.7 131.2 83% 62–79 ✓
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +8.2 146.1 77% 77–73 ✗
American University @ Holy Cross +1.3 131.9 55% 69–63 ✗
Bucknell @ Lafayette +4.7 148.3 67% 82–81 ✗
Stetson @ Central Arkansas +0.3 151.4 51% 73–74 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +5.0 156.4 68% 73–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.1 142.7 84% 72–81 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan -4.1 136.7 36% 73–51 ✓
Vermont @ Maine -20.1 135.1 3% 75–56 ✓
NJIT @ Stony Brook +9.0 139.3 79% 68–87 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +3.1 130.0 61% 64–48 ✗
Hartford @ UAlbany +3.1 135.4 61% 67–55 ✗
Binghamton @ UMBC +6.1 143.1 71% 68–78 ✓
West Virginia @ Oklahoma +4.7 133.7 67% 59–72 ✓
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan +6.8 143.0 73% 71–60 ✗
Ohio @ Bowling Green -8.1 157.8 23% 77–80 ✗
Akron @ Ball State -3.2 141.2 39% 79–60 ✓
Toledo @ Buffalo -0.9 157.9 47% 92–76 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Central Michigan -2.6 150.0 41% 75–61 ✓
Missouri @ South Carolina +8.3 134.0 78% 69–73 ✓
Duke @ Pittsburgh -15.5 135.3 8% 86–56 ✓
Kansas @ TCU -6.0 144.8 29% 64–74 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +24.7 121.5 99% 58–70 ✓
UIC @ Milwaukee -1.1 141.9 46% 80–69 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +2.7 149.5 60% 65–74 ✓
Kent State @ Northern Illinois -7.1 127.7 26% 63–55 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +2.5 139.4 59% 70–87 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +3.8 127.4 64% 51–74 ✓
Florida @ Vanderbilt +0.5 132.6 52% 82–78 ✗
Purdue @ Wisconsin -3.0 146.2 39% 67–70 ✗
Cincinnati @ Houston +16.6 132.5 93% 53–71 ✓
Southern Utah @ Montana State +4.0 148.6 64% 53–69 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia Tech +10.9 131.4 84% 43–75 ✓
Nevada @ Boise State +12.2 137.2 87% 67–73 ✓
San José State @ Air Force +4.6 124.9 66% 54–58 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +15.6 135.1 92% 61–70 ✓
Arizona @ USC -5.9 150.0 29% 91–71 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Radford +0.2 129.4 51% 78–71 ✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +12.6 143.3 87% 79–78 ✗
Hampton @ High Point +6.3 135.9 72% 77–84 ✓
Xavier @ St. John's +0.2 156.9 51% 66–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.