Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +30 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -16.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -12.8 (-17.2) | 138.2 (+3.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -14.1 (-15.9) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -12.8 (-17.2) | 140.7 (+1.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -14.4 (-15.6) | 137.8 (+4.2) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | DUKE 70 – 54 PITT |
| Jan 8, 2025 | DUKE 76 – 47 PITT |
| Jan 21, 2024 | PITT 80 – 76 DUKE |
| Jan 10, 2024 | DUKE 75 – 53 PITT |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DUKE 96 – 69 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-11 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#177) | 18.3 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#167) | 3.10 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#168) | 4.45 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#209) | 0.622 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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