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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–6 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
22 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charleston
@
Hofstra
|
+6.0 | 164.3 | 71% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
+3.1 | 139.8 | 61% | 67–66 | ✗ |
Massachusetts
@
Fordham
|
+4.0 | 147.0 | 64% | 73–85 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
North Carolina
|
+6.7 | 162.2 | 73% | 79–88 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Norfolk State
|
+8.1 | 139.2 | 77% | 46–75 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Howard
|
+10.4 | 151.3 | 83% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Coppin State
|
+13.9 | 139.5 | 90% | 67–80 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Iowa
|
+10.3 | 155.3 | 82% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Morgan State
|
-1.1 | 140.0 | 46% | 48–82 | ✗ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Grambling
|
+6.3 | 133.8 | 72% | 69–63 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Texas Southern
|
+7.4 | 132.7 | 75% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Texas
|
-0.7 | 130.2 | 47% | 68–61 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Texas Tech
|
+11.4 | 131.6 | 85% | 68–73 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
Wyoming
|
+0.6 | 125.0 | 52% | 73–66 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+2.2 | 133.7 | 58% | 59–53 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Southern
|
+11.0 | 136.7 | 84% | 51–58 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
+11.5 | 135.7 | 85% | 68–71 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Washington
|
-13.1 | 144.6 | 12% | 77–66 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Oregon State
|
-11.3 | 137.6 | 15% | 103–97 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Villanova
|
+9.6 | 133.4 | 81% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Georgia
|
-17.4 | 146.4 | 6% | 75–68 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Richmond
|
-1.0 | 132.1 | 46% | 55–53 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.