Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | NORF -450 NCCU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +29 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -8.3 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -9.9 (+19.1) | 141.4 (-20.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -8.0 (+21.0) | 143.0 (-22.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -7.5 (+21.5) | 143.5 (-22.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -8.6 (+20.4) | 143.0 (-22.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NORF 75 – 68 NCCU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NCCU 69 – 67 NORF |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NCCU 91 – 87 NORF |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | NORF 80 – 74 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 8-5 |
| Home | 11-0 | 9-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#202) | -7.3 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#159) | -1.17 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#175) | -1.82 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#143) | 0.472 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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