Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -9.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -10.0 (-8.0) | 140.9 (+9.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -8.8 (-6.8) | 143.0 (+7.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.3 (-6.3) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -10.3 (-8.3) | 141.8 (+8.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-3 |
| Home | 12-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#12) | 10.8 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#11) | 3.71 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#11) | 3.91 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#9) | 0.640 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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