Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -11.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -10.6 (-7.6) | 133.7 (+5.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -9.9 (-6.9) | 136.3 (+2.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -10.5 (-7.5) | 136.8 (+2.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -9.9 (-6.9) | 136.5 (+2.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 5-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#66) | 0.1 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#88) | 0.21 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#78) | 0.30 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#109) | 0.510 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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