Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -420 SYR +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -5.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -6.4 (+2.6) | 156.4 (+10.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -7.4 (+1.6) | 157.6 (+9.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -7.2 (+1.8) | 157.1 (+9.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -7.3 (+1.7) | 157.0 (+10.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNC 77 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 3, 2026 | UNC 87 – 77 SYR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNC 88 – 82 SYR |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SYR 86 – 79 UNC |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UNC 103 – 67 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#46) | 7.1 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#41) | 0.92 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#42) | 1.18 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#32) | 0.530 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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