Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +34 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -1.8 (+35.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -0.2 (+33.8) | 139.9 (-9.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -1.4 (+35.4) | 139.9 (-9.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -1.2 (+35.2) | 140.8 (-10.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -1.6 (+35.6) | 142.9 (-12.9) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MORG 79 – 71 UMES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UMES 66 – 49 MORG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MORG 75 – 72 UMES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MORG 76 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MORG 70 – 65 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-15 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 6-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 62.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#327) | -6.5 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#321) | -1.41 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#325) | -1.97 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#310) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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