Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -6.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -6.9 (+3.1) | 145.1 (+0.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -4.8 (+5.2) | 144.6 (+1.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -4.8 (+5.2) | 145.6 (+0.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -5.6 (+4.4) | 144.7 (+1.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 62 BING |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 60 BING |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UMBC 81 – 77 BING |
| Jan 4, 2025 | BING 87 – 82 UMBC |
| Mar 6, 2024 | BING 72 – 71 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#236) | -7.1 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#233) | -1.59 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#241) | -1.74 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#219) | 0.441 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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