Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
| Money | SJU -130 XAV +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -0.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -2.1 (+12.9) | 154.4 (-7.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -2.1 (+12.9) | 157.4 (-10.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -2.4 (+12.6) | 159.9 (-12.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -1.9 (+13.1) | 157.0 (-10.0) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 8-11 |
| Home | 13-6 | 16-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#58) | 11.5 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#70) | 2.18 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#52) | 2.58 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#135) | 0.577 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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