Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | HC -130 AMER +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | HC -1.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -0.3 (-5.7) | 130.5 (+1.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -0.6 (-6.6) | 133.7 (-1.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HC -0.6 (-6.6) | 133.0 (-1.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.2 (-5.8) | 133.0 (-1.0) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AMER 76 – 67 HC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HC 84 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | AMER 74 – 65 HC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AMER 75 – 64 HC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HC 58 – 56 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -13.6 (#346) | -12.3 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#333) | -1.92 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#340) | -2.26 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#346) | 0.404 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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