Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +18 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -16.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -15.2 (+2.8) | 137.0 (-13.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -15.0 (+3.0) | 138.1 (-14.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -14.1 (+3.9) | 138.4 (-14.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -14.7 (+3.3) | 138.9 (-14.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#5) | 5.9 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#19) | 0.61 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#15) | 1.04 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#10) | 0.513 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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