Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +4 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | AF -5.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -4.7 (-0.7) | 128.3 (-16.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -3.6 (+0.4) | 131.1 (-19.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -4.1 (-0.1) | 131.9 (-19.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -3.3 (+0.7) | 129.7 (-17.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 2-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#246) | -7.3 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#200) | -0.63 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#213) | -0.79 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#242) | 0.447 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 26.4 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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