Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +16 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -0.7 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -0.9 (-16.9) | 155.0 (+13.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -0.3 (-15.7) | 156.9 (+11.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -0.2 (-16.2) | 156.7 (+11.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -0.1 (-16.1) | 156.8 (+11.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOL 99 – 78 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUF 87 – 74 TOL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TOL 87 – 74 BUF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TOL 85 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | TOL 77 – 66 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#112) | 7.6 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#118) | 1.32 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#117) | 1.34 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#71) | 0.581 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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