Betting Lines
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -110 FLA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +4 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -0.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -0.5 (-4.5) | 139.3 (+20.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -1.1 (-5.1) | 137.8 (+22.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -0.9 (-4.9) | 138.9 (+21.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -0.8 (-4.8) | 138.9 (+21.1) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-8 | 13-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#70) | 10.4 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#85) | 1.63 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#89) | 1.86 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#86) | 0.552 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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