Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +19 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -3.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -2.9 (-16.1) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -2.8 (-16.2) | 142.6 (-3.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -2.7 (-16.3) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -3.1 (-15.9) | 141.1 (-2.1) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | AKR 78 – 65 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AKR 87 – 77 BALL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | AKR 87 – 82 BALL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AKR 81 – 73 BALL |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AKR 80 – 76 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#266) | 0.5 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#242) | 0.27 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#245) | 0.37 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#274) | 0.522 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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