Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -3.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -1.2 (+4.2) | 141.2 (-4.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -0.3 (+2.7) | 144.2 (-7.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -0.4 (+3.4) | 144.9 (-7.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -0.1 (+3.1) | 143.9 (-6.9) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIS 97 – 93 PUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PUR 89 – 73 WIS |
| Feb 15, 2025 | WIS 94 – 84 PUR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | WIS 76 – 75 PUR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PUR 78 – 70 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 9-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#28) | 17.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#7) | 3.15 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#13) | 3.88 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#9) | 0.619 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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