Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -250 WIS +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -8.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.5 (-9.5) | 144.6 (+6.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -8.6 (-9.6) | 149.0 (+2.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -8.1 (-9.1) | 146.9 (+4.1) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.8 (-7.8) | 145.7 (+5.3) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIS 97 – 93 PUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PUR 89 – 73 WIS |
| Feb 15, 2025 | WIS 94 – 84 PUR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PUR 78 – 70 WIS |
| Feb 4, 2024 | PUR 75 – 69 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 21.9 (#3) | 13.9 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.92 (#2) | 2.07 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.67 (#2) | 2.74 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.685 (#1) | 0.589 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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