Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -485 WIS +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +4 | 190 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -9.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (+30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -9.7 (-13.7) | 153.7 (+36.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -8.3 (-12.3) | 155.8 (+34.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -8.2 (-12.2) | 156.0 (+34.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.7 (-11.7) | 154.8 (+35.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | PUR 89 – 73 WIS |
| Feb 15, 2025 | WIS 94 – 84 PUR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | WIS 76 – 75 PUR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PUR 78 – 70 WIS |
| Feb 4, 2024 | PUR 75 – 69 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 21.7 (#9) | 15.4 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#15) | 2.63 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#12) | 3.25 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#17) | 0.587 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.15 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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