Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +1 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -4.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -4.3 (-5.3) | 149.2 (+13.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -4.3 (-5.3) | 150.2 (+12.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -4.3 (-5.3) | 152.4 (+10.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -4.2 (-5.2) | 152.3 (+10.7) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | LAF 81 – 79 BUCK |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BUCK 76 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BUCK 75 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BUCK 65 – 62 LAF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | BUCK 60 – 50 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#316) | -11.7 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#318) | -2.02 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#323) | -2.53 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#305) | 0.402 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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