Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +17 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -2.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -2.6 (+14.4) | 140.3 (+16.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -2.6 (+14.4) | 143.3 (+13.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -2.8 (+14.2) | 143.9 (+13.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -3.4 (+13.6) | 138.8 (+18.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#35) | 11.8 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#46) | 2.44 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#43) | 2.97 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#44) | 0.596 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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