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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–15 on winners spread MAE 8.4 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Omaha @ South Dakota State	+24.3	165.4	99%	79–87	✓
Jacksonville @ Jacksonville State	+4.3	122.5	65%	54–51	✗
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State	+3.2	142.1	61%	72–73	✓
Georgetown @ Xavier	+14.1	150.5	90%	75–97	✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian	+7.1	134.8	74%	56–61	✓
Brown @ Yale	+6.0	138.2	71%	65–74	✓
Oregon State @ Washington	+9.3	150.2	80%	67–78	✓
Long Island University @ Wagner	+10.2	150.0	82%	62–82	✓
Southern Utah @ Weber State	+3.1	154.2	61%	80–70	✗
McNeese @ Houston Christian	-0.9	145.6	47%	144–149	✗
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon	+16.1	136.7	93%	53–70	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley	-8.8	151.2	21%	93–63	✓
Morehead State @ Murray State	+8.3	130.0	77%	67–71	✓
Georgia Southern @ App State	+4.6	124.5	66%	60–73	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford	-0.7	134.4	47%	64–66	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern	+9.5	142.5	81%	77–78	✓
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M	+1.6	136.5	56%	64–67	✓
Boise State @ Colorado State	+2.2	134.3	58%	68–71	✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton	+5.0	137.2	68%	59–62	✓
St. John's @ Marquette	+4.8	160.8	67%	77–85	✓
Sacramento State @ Montana	+8.0	129.6	77%	72–71	✗
Utah Valley @ New Mexico State	+4.5	135.3	66%	46–62	✓
Denver @ North Dakota State	+6.3	140.4	72%	62–82	✓
Colorado @ Utah	+0.1	137.7	50%	84–71	✗
USC @ UCLA	+9.5	139.9	81%	68–75	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge	-7.3	128.9	25%	84–62	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly	-0.8	133.3	47%	76–80	✗
BYU @ San Francisco	+3.0	143.6	61%	63–75	✓
San Diego State @ Nevada	-7.0	131.0	26%	79–78	✓
UNLV @ New Mexico	-3.6	151.8	37%	67–76	✗
Portland @ Santa Clara	+8.5	156.0	78%	67–91	✓
Houston @ Memphis	-6.9	140.7	26%	61–75	✗
Northeastern @ Towson	+12.2	123.7	87%	61–68	✓
Winthrop @ Longwood	+0.7	147.4	52%	58–79	✓
Penn State @ Rutgers	+3.6	121.3	63%	58–59	✓
Michigan @ Ohio State	+3.9	143.5	64%	75–69	✗
UMass Lowell @ UMBC	+3.2	142.6	62%	85–93	✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire	+5.9	129.7	70%	72–69	✗
Nebraska @ Wisconsin	+14.6	148.5	91%	74–73	✗
NJIT @ Vermont	+21.7	131.6	98%	59–98	✓
UAlbany @ Hartford	+3.0	135.0	61%	49–61	✓
Lehigh @ Colgate	+13.6	146.1	89%	61–81	✓
UCF @ Tulsa	-2.4	138.6	41%	72–73	✗
South Florida @ Temple	+9.1	119.4	80%	47–75	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Drake	-6.0	136.4	29%	64–58	✓
Delaware @ Drexel	+0.4	138.9	51%	66–56	✗
Tulane @ SMU	+6.6	147.8	73%	68–74	✓
Boston University @ Navy	+4.3	125.8	65%	80–85	✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga	+2.7	132.0	60%	56–79	✓
Maryland @ Michigan State	+6.2	141.0	71%	67–77	✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington	+3.6	137.6	63%	58–75	✓
Louisiana @ Troy	+0.0	138.8	50%	66–57	✗
Samford @ Furman	+9.5	152.5	81%	68–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.