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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–14 on winners spread MAE 8.6 81 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Ohio @ Kentucky	+7.4	146.3	75%	59–77	✓
Auburn @ South Florida	-1.6	128.6	35%	58–52	✓
Marquette @ West Virginia	+2.7	147.8	60%	82–71	✗
Lehigh @ Merrimack	+8.5	129.2	74%	45–55	✓
Radford @ Furman	+17.7	138.4	89%	64–81	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Robert Morris	+6.4	135.7	70%	74–70	✗
Idaho State @ Nebraska	+4.6	138.6	85%	60–78	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Minnesota	—	—	—	49–78	—
UMass Lowell @ George Washington	+1.5	133.8	44%	67–56	✗
George Mason @ James Madison	-1.2	136.7	62%	64–67	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Fordham	—	—	—	75–73	—
Coppin State @ Virginia	+9.3	128.5	86%	52–68	✓
Belmont @ Kennesaw State	-8.4	152.4	20%	97–78	✓
North Alabama @ Manhattan	—	—	—	51–55	—
East Carolina @ Old Dominion	-5.0	132.8	32%	73–60	✓
Hampton @ Wofford	—	—	—	60–77	—
Arkansas State @ Southeast Missouri State	—	—	—	72–60	—
UMBC @ Western Carolina	—	—	—	91–75	—
Middle Tennessee @ Stephen F. Austin	—	—	—	74–87	—
Niagara @ SIU Edwardsville	-2.2	139.4	37%	70–60	✓
Lafayette @ Duke	+25.5	150.4	90%	55–88	✓
Western Kentucky @ Memphis	+15.9	153.3	90%	62–74	✓
Oakland @ Alabama	+9.7	143.0	84%	59–86	✓
Southern @ South Dakota	—	—	—	68–71	—
Florida International @ Green Bay	-9.2	129.2	26%	63–60	✓
Rice @ LSU New Orleans	-1.1	145.2	37%	83–78	✓
Southern Illinois @ Colorado	—	—	—	67–63	—
Stetson @ Lamar	+2.4	135.4	57%	60–59	✗
Louisiana Tech @ Northwestern State	-0.8	144.5	42%	83–64	✓
Bellarmine @ Gonzaga	+18.9	145.1	90%	50–92	✓
Ole Miss @ Elon	-6.5	144.5	22%	74–56	✓
Cal Poly @ Santa Clara	+18.5	143.1	88%	57–87	✓
Georgia Tech @ Georgia	+5.2	136.4	67%	88–78	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ San Diego	+3.3	138.3	59%	57–55	✗
UTEP @ Pacific	—	—	—	73–64	—
Wichita State @ Arizona	+11.5	136.6	84%	78–82	✓
Michigan @ UNLV	-12.4	131.8	13%	74–61	✓
Binghamton @ UConn	+25.4	146.3	90%	63–87	✓
Bryant @ Bethune-Cookman	-4.5	142.5	38%	75–81	✗
Monmouth @ Saint Joseph's	-3.5	144.0	34%	87–75	✓
Villanova @ Tennessee	-2.5	146.6	37%	71–53	✓
Stanford @ Baylor	+15.3	139.0	86%	48–86	✓
Richmond @ Drake	—	—	—	70–73	—
Central Connecticut @ Quinnipiac	+11.3	140.9	86%	65–76	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Youngstown State	+7.4	141.9	71%	69–66	✗
Howard @ High Point	-1.2	142.0	65%	63–73	✗
UCF @ Evansville	-6.3	137.9	19%	75–59	✓
Northern Arizona @ UT Rio Grande Valley	—	—	—	89–87	—
Austin Peay @ Dayton	—	—	—	87–81	—
Detroit Mercy @ Louisville	+9.7	139.3	81%	67–73	✓
Canisius @ Cleveland State	+4.2	140.8	69%	70–80	✓
Rider @ Buffalo	—	—	—	65–87	—
Holy Cross @ Air Force	-0.3	128.8	52%	53–72	✗
UT Martin @ Troy	+0.7	139.8	69%	67–80	✓
Utah Tech @ Cal State Northridge	+2.7	140.0	63%	73–79	✓
Bradley @ Brown	+0.2	136.1	51%	62–65	✓
Purdue @ North Carolina	-6.3	161.3	24%	93–84	✓
Montana State @ New Mexico	+3.2	155.4	73%	78–81	✓
UIC @ Loyola Chicago	+25.5	149.4	90%	63–80	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware State	—	—	—	67–63	—
Chattanooga @ VCU	+0.2	126.7	33%	56–54	✗
Army @ La Salle	-4.2	148.0	43%	58–61	✗
Chicago State @ UC Santa Barbara	—	—	—	50–81	—
North Carolina A&T @ Wake Forest	+11.2	138.6	85%	63–87	✓
Oral Roberts @ Central Arkansas	—	—	—	67–70	—
Niagara @ St. Thomas	+3.5	142.4	69%	67–76	✓
Hampton @ Georgia Southern	—	—	—	66–86	—
Radford @ Navy	+6.3	121.1	80%	33–47	✓
UMBC @ Longwood	—	—	—	55–82	—
Georgia State @ William & Mary	-11.2	141.7	17%	77–59	✓
Mercer @ Saint Louis	—	—	—	58–75	—
Texas Tech @ Incarnate Word	—	—	—	84–62	—
Colgate @ Syracuse	—	—	—	100–85	—
Utah @ Boston College	-2.9	131.3	39%	68–61	✓
VMI @ Marist	—	—	—	74–78	—
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State	+19.2	150.5	90%	59–83	✓
Duquesne @ Colorado	+10.6	136.6	82%	76–84	✓
San José State @ Texas	+18.7	134.0	90%	45–79	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ St. John's	+25.8	153.2	91%	74–87	✓
North Dakota @ Florida Atlantic	+11.6	144.9	85%	79–98	✓
Manhattan @ Liberty	+6.9	127.1	67%	76–60	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.