UT Rio Grande Valley
Vaqueros
87
–
89
FINAL
Neutral
South Padre Island Battle on the Beach
Northern Arizona
Lumberjacks
Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +2 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -9.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+36.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -5.0 (+3.0) | 140.2 (+35.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -5.4 (+3.4) | 144.7 (+31.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -5.1 (+3.1) | 141.3 (+34.7) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2022 | RGV 91 – 79 NAU |
| Nov 23, 2021 | RGV 82 – 80 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-15 |
| Home | 4-9 | 5-10 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#342) | -2.4 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#199) | -1.16 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#202) | -2.20 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#68) | 0.420 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 22.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 25.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 25.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 27.0% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 70.5% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 56.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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