Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +2 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -13.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -9.4 (-11.4) | 149.8 (+12.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -7.1 (-9.1) | 152.3 (+9.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -9.2 (-11.2) | 152.2 (+9.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -8.9 (-10.9) | 149.5 (+12.5) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2022 | RGV 91 – 79 NAU |
| Nov 20, 2021 | NAU 89 – 87 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-10 | 4-9 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#258) | -10.7 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#231) | -2.11 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#306) | -3.86 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#232) | 0.448 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 62.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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