Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | RGV +170 NAU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +12 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -2.1 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -1.2 (+13.2) | 147.5 (+22.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -0.8 (+11.2) | 148.5 (+21.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -0.8 (+12.8) | 148.9 (+21.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -0.3 (+12.3) | 148.8 (+21.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2021 | RGV 82 – 80 NAU |
| Nov 20, 2021 | NAU 89 – 87 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#336) | -1.2 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#166) | -0.72 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#195) | -0.60 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#204) | 0.515 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 27.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 38.6% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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